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Cyclone Nargis (JTWC designation: 01B, also known as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis) was a strong tropical cyclone that made landfall in Burma (also known as Myanmar) on May 2, 2008, causing catastrophic destruction and at least 63,335 fatalities[3] with a further 37,019 people[3] still missing, and estimates on the final total of fatalities ranging up to 100,000.[4] However, Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead and some have estimated the death toll may be well over 100,000.[5] It is the deadliest named cyclone in the North Indian Ocean Basin, as well as the second deadliest named cyclone of all time, behind Typhoon Nina. Including unnamed storms, Nargis is the 8th deadliest cyclone of all time. Nargis was the first tropical cyclone to strike the country since Cyclone Mala made landfall in 2006. The first named storm of the 2008 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Nargis developed on April 27 in the central area of Bay of Bengal. Initially it tracked slowly northwestward and, encountering favorable conditions, it quickly strengthened. Dry air weakened the cyclone on April 29, though after beginning a steady eastward motion Nargis rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of at least 165 km/h (105 mph) on May 2; the Joint Typhoon Warning Center assessed peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph). The cyclone moved ashore in the Ayeyarwady Division of Burma near peak intensity and, after passing near the major city of Yangon (Rangoon), the storm gradually weakened until dissipating near the border of Burma and Thailand. The cyclone name "Nargis" (نرگس, IPA: næɵr-ɡɵs), is a Persian word meaning daffodil, although the word traveled into Urdu and the cyclone was named through that language.[6]
[edit] Storm history
In the last week of April 2008, an area of deep convection and concern persisted near a low-level circulation in the Bay of Bengal about 1150 km (715 mi) east-southeast of Chennai, India.[7] With good outflow and low wind shear, the system slowly organized as its circulation consolidated.[8] At 0300 UTC on April 27, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified the system as a depression,[9] and nine hours later the system intensified into a deep depression.[10] At the same time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified it as Tropical Cyclone 01B. With a ridge to its north, the system tracked slowly north-northwestward as banding features improved.[11][12] At 0000 UTC, 5:30 AM Indian Standard Time, on April 28, the IMD upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Nargis while it was located about 550 km (340 mi) east of Chennai, India.[13] On April 28 Nargis became nearly stationary while located between ridges to its northwest and southeast. That day the JTWC upgraded the storm to cyclone status, or the equivalence of a minimal hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[14] Around the same time, the IMD upgraded Nargis to a severe cyclonic storm.[15] The cyclone developed a concentric eye feature, which is an eyewall outside the inner dominant eyewall,[16] with warm waters aiding in further intensification.[17] Early on April 29, the JTWC estimated Nargis reached winds of 160 km/h (100 mph),[18] and at the same time the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm.[19] Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India.[20][21] Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganized and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast.[22] The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical storm status.[23] By late on April 29, convection had begun to rebuild,[24] though immediate restrengthening was prevented by increased wind shear.[25] 
On May 1, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow in association with an approaching upper-level trough.[26] Strengthening continued as it developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 km (12 mi), and early on May 2 the JTWC estimated the cyclone reached peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) as it approached the coast of Burma.[27] At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak winds of 165 km/h (105 mph).[28] Around 1200 UTC on May 2, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Burma.[29] The storm gradually weakened over land, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph).[30] Early on May 3 the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm.[31] It quickly weakened after turning to the northeast toward the rugged terrain near the Burma-Thailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis.[32] [edit] Impact[edit] Western Bay of Bengal
In Sri Lanka the cyclone produced heavy rainfall which led to flooding and landslides across ten districts in the country. The districts of Ratnapura and Kegalle were the most affected, where more than 3,000 families were displaced. Thousands of houses were flooded, with 21 reported destroyed. The rainfall left 4,500 people homeless,[33] and more than 35,000 people were affected on the island.[34] Three people were reported injured on the island, with two others dead.[33] The India Meteorological Department recommended that fishermen not sail into the ocean during the passage of Nargis. Strong waves and gusty winds were expected along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coastline in India.[13] Additionally, the influence of the cyclone lowered temperatures along the Indian coastline, which had been affected by a severe heat wave.[35] When the cyclone was originally expected to strike near Bangladesh, officials requested farmers to hurriedly finish harvesting the rice crop. At the time, the country was experiencing severe food shortages from Cyclone Sidr in the previous year and flooding earlier in the year, and a direct strike from Nargis would have resulted in destroyed crops due to strong winds.[36] [edit] Burma (Myanmar)
The United Nations estimated in its report that 1.5 million people were "severely affected" by this cyclone.[37] Estimates of the people still missing are 41,000, with 22,464 confirmed dead.[38] A recent government estimate put the number of deaths at 70,000, with some non-governmental organizations estimating that the final toll will be over 100,000.[39] Foreign aid workers concluded further, that 2 to 3 million are homeless, in the worst disaster in Burma’s history, comparable with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Andrew Kirkwood, country director of the British charity Save The Children, stated: "We're looking at 50,000 dead and millions of homeless, I'd characterise it as unprecedented in the history of Burma and on an order of magnitude with the effect of the tsunami on individual countries. There might well be more dead than the tsunami caused in Sri Lanka."[40] As a result the Burmese government has declared five regions - Yangon, Ayeyarwady, Bago Divisions and Mon and Kayin States currently as disaster areas. Thousands of buildings were destroyed; in the town of Labutta, located in the Ayeyarwady Division, state television reported that 75 percent of buildings had collapsed and 20 percent had their roofs ripped off.[41] One report indicated that 95 percent of buildings in the Irrawaddy Delta area were destroyed.[42] It is believed that the cyclone is the deadliest tropical cyclone in the world since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, which killed over 138,000 people. At least 10,000 people have been reported to have perished in the delta town of Bogale.[43] A diplomat in the city of Rangoon spoke to the Reuters news agency, giving them a description of the scene. He said that the area around him looked like a 'war zone' as a result of the cyclone. Burst sewage mains caused the landscape to flood with waste, ruining the rice crop.[44] An official from the United Nations also commented on the situation, at the time of the event. "It's a bad situation. Almost all the houses are smashed. People are in a terrible situation," he said. Another UN representative also spoke on the incident. He reported that "The Irrawaddy delta was hit extremely hard not only because of the wind and rain but because of the storm surge." The Daily Telegraph, a UK newspaper, reported that food prices in Burma could be affected by this disaster.[45] Woradet Wirawekhin (th: วรเดช วีระเวคิน), Deputy Director General of Thailand's Department of Information, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated on 7 May 2008 that, in reference to a report submitted by Bansan Bunnak (th: บรรสาน บุนนาค), Thai ambassador in Yangon, the conditions in the city had degenerated and that most businesses and markets were closed. The Deputy Director General also reported that the locals also faced even more increasing adversity in basic subsistence; local food prices have already been increased two- or threefold.[clarify][46] [edit] Aftermath
[edit] International reliefOn May 6, 2008, the Burma government representation in New York formally asked the United Nations for help. But in other ways, it remains resistant to the most basic assistance.[40] As of May 7, 2008, the government of Burma has not officially endorsed international assistance, but stated that they are, "willing to accept international assistance, preferably bilateral, government to government." The biggest challenge at present is obtaining visas for entry into the country. According to Thai Rath Newspaper of Thailand on 8 May 2008.[47] In the afternoon (Bangkok time) of 7 May 2008, the Burmese junta permitted Italian flights containing relief supplies from the United Nations, and twenty-five tonnes of consumable goods, to land in Myanmar. However, many nations and organizations hope to deliver assistance and relief to Burma without delay; most of their officials, supplies and stores are waiting in Thailand and at the Yangon airport, as the Burmese junta declines to issue visas for many of those individuals. These political tensions raise the concern that some food and medical supplies might become unusable, even before the Burmese junta officially accepts the international relief effort. [edit] IndiaIndia, one of the few countries which maintains close relations with Myanmar, launched Operation Sahayata[48] under which two Indian Navy ships and two Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft supplied the first international relief material to the cyclone-hit country.[49] The two aircraft carried 4 tonnes of relief supplies each while the Indian Navy transported more than 100 tonnes of relief material.[50] On May 8, the IAF dispatched third air consignment carrying over 32 tonnes of relief material including tents, blankets and medicines.[51] India plans to send more aid to Myanmar.[52] In a separate development, Myanmar denied Indian search and rescue teams and media access to critical cyclone-hit areas.[53] According to various reports, Indian authorities had warned Myanmar about the danger that Cyclone Nargis posed 48 hours before it hit the country's coast.[54] [edit] MalaysiaMalaysia is to channel US$1 million (RM3.2 million) in financial assistance and RM500,000 in humanitarian aid to Myanmar. Humanitarian aid would be transported by Hercules C130 and would include 5,000 blankets, 30 tents and RM100,000 worth of T-shirts, batik sarong, biscuits, instant noodles and medicines. [55] Mercy Malaysia, a volunteer relief organization in Malaysia, is sending a four-member relief team to Yangon, Myanmar to assess the situation in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. They would start looking into areas such as shelter, clean water, sanitation and emergency medical treatment. [56] [edit] ThailandThailand has sent $100,000 USD in supplies, thirty tonnes of medical supplies and twelve tonnes of food supplies from Thai Red Cross. Additionally, Chaiya Sasomsap, Minister of Public Health of Thailand, stated that the Government has already sent medical supplies valued more than one billion baht ($31.3 million) to Burma. Furthermore, the Government of Thailand dispatched, upon the permission of the Burmese junta, twenty medical teams and twenty quick communicable disease suppression units. Samak Sundaravej, Prime Minister of Thailand, stated that "if Myanmar gives the green light allowing us to help, our Air Force will provide C-130 aircraft to carry our teams there. This should not be precipitately carried out, it has to have the permission of their government."[57] On 7 May 2008, the aforementioned units, with their subordinate airplanes, were permitted to land in Yangon, carrying drinking water and construction materials.[46] [edit] United StatesThe U.S. embassy in Burma has released $250,000, with an additional $3 million coming from USAID bringing the total US relief to $3.25 million. The United States Navy has also stated they are prepared to move their assets when they are given the go-ahead. The United States is currently urging Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, India and China to use any influence they have with Myanmar to allow relief teams into the cyclone-stricken nation. The Myanmar government is currently blocking certain relief agencies from operating in its territory and not issuing visas quickly enough to individuals from certain aid agencies.[58] The first U.S. relief airlift arrived in Myanmar on Monday after prolonged negotiations with the country's isolationist junta. An unarmed military C-130 cargo plane, packed with supplies, flew out of the Thai air force base of Utapao and landed in Yangon. The supplies were transferred to Myanmar army trucks.[59] [edit] Other relief effortsAs of May 8, 2008, the Foundation for the People of Burma has a team on the ground in Rangoon and beyond providing direct assistance to thousands of refugees. Since this organization is administered by Buddhist volunteers and already has tacit permission from the Burmese government, all donations go directly for supplies. Foundation for the People of Burma. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has pledged $189,000 for relief.[60] The Red Cross has also called for an appeal of a further $6 million. Red Cross spokesman Matt Cochrane said that cyclone survivors need everything. They need emergency shelter to keep them dry, including food supplies. He says stagnant waters are a perfect breeding ground for the malaria mosquito, so insecticide-treated nets are needed.[61] The Red Cross suffered a setback when a boat carrying supplies sank when it hit a submerged tree. Everyone aboard survived, but most of the cargo was lost.[62] Save the Children, one of the few agencies allowed to work in Myanmar, said the toll would likely sharply grow in the next few days as help reaches isolated areas.[63]
[edit] Private relief
Several international organizations have been approved to work within the country (either before or after) or otherwise supporting relief efforts:
[edit] Impact on rice suppliesThe Irrawaddy Delta is such a fertile area for rice growing that it is nicknamed the "rice bowl"[citation needed]. Production was high enough that Burma could feed its citizens a high amount of rice (by the standards of Asia) with enough left over to sell on the market. Since Nargis hit right around harvest, a rice shortage and famine could result. The United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization estimated that Nargis impacted 65% of the country's paddies. They feel that the situation would be "devastating... if the recent disaster results in severe rice shortages." This may exacerbate the crisis already occurring, but it could be partially alleviated if fall and late summer harvests are good.[83] [edit] Controversies[edit] Military junta's blockade of aidBurma's military junta says the country is not ready to accept foreign aid workers, amid mounting criticism of its response to the devastating cyclone. The World Food Programme's Paul Risley said the delays were "unprecedented in modern humanitarian relief efforts".[84] In the days after the storm, the junta concentrated its efforts on a cat-and-mouse game with a CNN reporter.[85] Thairath Newspaper of Thailand reported that many Burmese people were displeased with the junta government, as they had provided no appropriate warning system for the incoming cyclone. In addition, they believed the mayhem caused by the cyclone and associated flooding was further exacerbated by an uncooperative response from the junta. For example, with no appropriate measures currently in place to manage the increasing number of dead bodies in the cyclone's aftermath, it was reported that the corpses are now simply being abandoned on the streets, with the situation worsening as time passes, exemplifying foreign concerns that the emergence and spread of communicable diseases would ensue.[47] In addition, the International Society for Political Prisoner Assistance, located in Bangkok, reported human rights oversights during the disaster, alleging that corrections officers employed with the government had fired upon the prisoners of Yangon's Insein Prison who were attempting to escape amidst the chaos. It has been reported that 36 prisoners were killed and about 70 others were injured. The Burmese junta denied both reports.[57] On 9 May 2008, the junta officially declared that their acceptance of international aid relief would be limited to food, medicines and other supplies as well as financial aid, but would not allow additional foreign aid workers or military units to operate in the country. Samak Sundaravej, Prime Minister of Thailand, stated that, following the request of Eric G. John, U.S. Ambassador to Thailand, he will visit Myanmar on 11 May in order to urge the junta to open the country. Quinton Quayle, U.K. Ambassador to Thailand, later remarked that he will also join Samak.[86] However the junta immediately replied that it was not willing to welcome anyone at this time. Samak has said that he will still submit the mediating letter to the junta without delay.[87] The delays have started to attract international condemnation. Also, on 9 May in Bangkok, Richard Horsey, representative of the United Nations, issued a warning for Myanmar to no longer decline the full scale of international relief effort as another storm, as deadly as the Nargis, is headed towards the country. The new storm would probably worsen the circumstances.[88] United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged the junta to allow aid in "without hinderance". Ban's comments came after the World Food Program resumed food aid after two shipments of high-energy biscuits were taken by the military.[89] The Canadian House of Commons condemned the Burmese government's response in a resolution passed unanimously on May 9, 2008.[67] Oxfam International's regional chief Sarah Ireland warned that 1.5 million face death if they do not get clean water and sanitation soon: "It's really crucial that people get access to clean water sources and sanitation to avoid unnecessary deaths and suffering."[90] [edit] ReferendumDespite objections raised by the Burmese opposition parties and foreign nations in the wake of the natural disaster, the junta intends to proceed with a previously scheduled (10 May 2008) constitutional referendum. Voting will, however, be postponed until 24 May 2008 in Yangon and other areas hardest hit by the storm.[91] On 8 May 2008, about thirty protesters assembled before the Burmese embassy in Manila, Philippines, demanding that the junta defer voting on the referendum and immediately accept international relief. The Philippine protesters delivered the statement that "this time is not the time for politics, but it is the time to save people." The United States Government has also demanded the United Nations not to endorse the referendum. Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the Burmese opposition, also stated that holding a vote for the referendum during this disaster would be an consumedly unacceptable act.[47] About 500 Myanmar activists demonstrated on 10 May outside their country's embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, demanding that Myanmar's military regime call off its constitutional referendum even as voting began despite a devastating cyclone.[92] In a public poll conducted throughout Myanmar on 9 May 2008 by Mizzima, a Burmese news agency, 64% of those surveyed still intended to vote in the referendum. However, 71% did not know what the constitution was, and 52% have not yet decided whether they will vote to support or oppose it.[93] [edit] Aid distributionAP news stories state that foreign aid provided to disaster victims was modified to make it look like it came from the military regime, and state-run television continuously ran images of Gen. Than Shwe ceremonially handing out disaster relief.[94] More than a week after the disaster, only one out of 10 people who are homeless, injured or threatened by disease and hunger have received some kind of aid.[95] [edit] See also[edit] References
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